Record-Breaking CMBS Delinquency Rates

by Benjamin Greenberg

"Lodging and retail suffered immediately after travel and non-essential shopping stopped in the spring."

Online shopping expands, the pandemic continues, and lodging and retail are still in free-fall. CMBS distress was spread out over several years after the great recession. This time it’s much different, with similar massive and sustained revenue reductions hitting the market within months. While reopening the economy in some areas has brought relief, the 30-plus day delinquency rate hit a near all-time high of 10.3% in June.  

Where will multifamily and lodging delinquency rates peak this time? How many borrowers have had enough punishment and will return keys due to Covid-19? And how much of an impact on the market will those walkaways create in an already volatile situation?

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